Nope, I’m not leaving. Just clearing out some of the backlog of stats I’ve got here while working on this year’s final grades (those start next week, by the way).
So, here’s the monthly splits for the skaters throughout the season.
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar
apr
Some of the stuff that jumps out - Stastny, not surprisingly, was our leading point guy in October, November, December and March - essentially, every month he was healthy. And Svatos was the leading goal scorer (or tied for the lead) in three different months. Would it be crazy to ask to see them paired together more often? For the record, the two played together 9 times, and Svatos had a goal in 6 of those 9 games. In February, the month were Stastny, Sakic, Smyth and Clark all missed significant time, the leading goal scorers were TJ Hensick and Ben Guite. Hensick’s 5 goals in February came in a 3-game span, but the outburst wasn’t enough to keep him on the ice - he was demoted in late-February. It’s also interesting that Scott Hannan was -7 in October and -6 in November, but then was +8 the rest of the way. That still left him at -5 on the season, worst among our defensemen. Kurt Sauer, on the other hand, was not a minus player in any month. After the 2nd game of the season he was a -1. The next game he moved up to +1 and then was a positive player the rest of the year. No player was in the top 5 in scoring in every month.
More to come…
EDIT: There’s a bit of a caveat about the stats in that I hand-enter them into excel, which means there’s some room for error. I’ve checked over all the totals for goals, assists, points, +/- and TOI and they all appear to be correct. I did find some discrepancies in the secondary stats - shots, hits, faceoffs, etc. Nothing seemed to be off enough to go back through and try to dig out the errors - we’re talking season totals off by 1 or 2. So, take the numbers for what they are - a good overall view but not a 100% accurate one. Please, as always, no wagering.
I’m already settling myself in to a long summer of “will-he-or-won’t-he” news about Peter Forsberg. It should be abundantly clear to everyone out there that Forsberg still has a strong will to play, but can’t seem to convince his body to get in line.
After the season ended, it seemed like Foppa was done. Not so fast, boys and girls. I just stumbled across an hfboard post linking to a Swedish paper that has him leaning towards coming back. I don’t speak Swedish, but running the page through google translator works okay. The gist is that Forsbeg had his feet looked at by a doctor and that the thinking is he could hold up to the rigors of another NHL season without surgery.
I have no idea about the validity of the paper (or the doctor), but this would appear to be good news for those who would like to see Forsberg return next year (I’m one of them). The most important part, to me, is not that the doctor is encouraged but that Forsberg seems to be working hard to find out if he can be fixed. The MSM guys had Forsberg limping off into the sunset after the Detroit series ended, and yet less than a week later he was seeing a foot doctor. I think it’s clear he’d like to return if his body will let him.
In my house, the hockey season ends when the Avalanche stop playing. While I haven’t watched any hockey since May 1st, I’m told there’s still some rogue teams out there playing some exhibition games for some little silver trophy. And I wonder if we need to re-evaluate the Avs postseason a bit because of what’s happening in the NHL.
The Red Wings - you know, the team that unceremoniously ripped the Avs to shreds in round two - seem to be rolling over the Dallas Stars in the Conference Finals. The Wings have won 9 straight games in the playoffs. If Dominik Hasek hadn’t decided to take a couple of mid-game siestas, the Wings could conceivably be carrying a perfect record in the postseason, which would have been a completely different take on Ray Bourque’s old “16W” t-shirts.
If the Wings keep this up, does it change our opinion of the 2007-2008 Avalanche…or of the coaching job by Joel Quenneville? Avalanche fans have such a bitter taste in our mouths after getting stomped by Detroit and it seemed like overnight the team shifted from Cup contender to a team in need of a rebuild. Against the Wild, the Avs seemed very much like a team capable of a Cup run. Four humiliating losses was all it took to toss that positive outlook out the window.
Now that the Wings are manhandling another solid team, does it paint the Avs in a bit better light? It’s looking more and more like there isn’t another NHL team that can compete with Detroit (and yes, it’s painful to write that). Should we be cutting the Avalanche - and Quenneville - a bit of a break, especially considering all the injuries we suffered?
from the Avs‘ site:
The Colorado Avalanche Hockey Club announced today that Joel Quenneville will not return to coach the team next season.
“After meeting with Joel, we mutually agreed that the best decision for both parties involved is to go separate ways,” said Avalanche Executive Vice President & General Manager Francois Giguere. “On behalf of the organization, I want to thank Joel for his years of service and wish him the best in his coaching career.”
Not at all surprising, as there were a lot of hints that this was coming. I’ve been meaning to weigh in on Quenneville all week, but just never quite got around to it. Honestly, I’m more on the fence than most people, and wouldn’t have been that upset if he were to return. But change is good, and I’m curious to see what another coach can do.
I looked at the defensemen and goaltender situation yesterday, and now get down to the main course - forwards. This is the position that has the potential for the most change, and not all of that is due to the will-they-or-won’t-they status of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg.
The Avs currently have 8 forwards under contract for next season, with salary cap numbers in parentheses.
- Ryan Smyth ($6,250,000)
- Milan Hejduk ($3,900,000)
- Tyler Arnason ($1,675,000)
- Ian Laperriere ($1,150,000)
- Paul Stastny ($850,000)
- T.J. Hensick ($850,000)
- David Jones ($550,000)
- Ben Guite ($475,000)
All told, that’s $15,700,000 in salary. However, Stastny will be a restricted free agent next summer, so one would assume that sometime this summer he will sign one of those big, long contracts that have become all the rage in the NHL lately.
There are also several key restricted free agents, most of whom I’d expect back in the ugly uniforms next year (’07-’08 salary in parentheses):
I assume Richardson is done in Denver (I’ll stay off my soapbox on this one, but I think everyone knows how I feel about this). I think Wolski, Svatos and McLeod are good bets to return next year, although the first two will likely be seeing a nice pay increase.
As for the UFAs:
I think most everyone knows the drill here. If Sakic decides not to hang up the skates, he’ll be back with the Avs. The same has been reported of Forsberg - and, honestly, I’d love to have him back - but I think we all should know by now that NO decision is ever guaranteed with Foppa. A couple of the local writers have speculated that Brunette is all but gone, and that’s a shame. He’s going to be missed both behind the net and in the locker room if he does move on this summer.
As for the other guys on the list, it’s already been rumored that Hlinka would be headed back to Europe, and I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen. I enjoyed watching Hlinka, but he never quite turned the corner and he didn’t cross the pond to watch games from the press box. It’s too bad that didn’t work out for Hlinka or the Avs, but it was a risk worth taking for both parties. I hope the team continues to make moves like that in the future. I’m sure Wyatt Smith is gone and it’s a pretty good bet The Sheriff will be riding off into the sunset as well.
So, how does the free agent market look? In a word: old. A lot of the “big” names - Jagr, Shanahan, Weight, Roberts, Fedorov, Sundin, and on and on - seem on the verge of retirement. Marian Hossa seems poised to be the big fish, but guys like Brendan Morrison, Pavol Demitra, Miro Satan, Markus Naslund, Brian Rolston, Ryan Malone, Radim Vrbata, and the beloved Sean Avery seem to top what appears to be a rather thin list. I have to admit, other than Rolston and Malone, I don’t see many names out there that really get me excited. If there’s one positive that we got out of the Wings series, though, it’s that TJ Hensick and David Jones are looking an awful lot like guys ready to have an impact in the NHL, so perhaps Francois Giguere can focus on depth here rather than impact players.
The cap next year is rumored to be in the $55 million to $58 million range. By my math, the Avalanche have $29.5 million already invested in salaries to 14 players, leaving about $25 million to sign free agents (including RFAs like Svatos and Wolski). The Avalanche also have to extend Stastny this summer, although if I understand the CBA correctly (and there’s a good bet that I don’t) his extension wouldn’t affect his cap number this year. If Foote re-signs and Sakic returns (please) there’s a big chunk of change gone. No matter what, this rather meh free agency crop will force Giguere to be careful with his spending this summer. So, maybe we will see Wyatt Smith in an Avalanche unipron again…
We’ve looked at the goalies, and here’s a peek at the defensemen.
Up until the Detroit series, this was a position of strength for the team, but there will likely be some personnel changes this offseason. Currently under contract (with cap hit in parentheses):
All told, that’s $13 million committed with at least 2 more players to come. I’m not very versed on our minor league system, but it doesn’t seem like there’s anyone in the “cubbard” who’ll be ready to play soon. The top scoring defenseman for Lake Erie last year was former 7th round pick Michael Vernace, who notched 29 points.
The list of free agents is almost as long:
Obviously, we won’t be re-signing all of these guys. I’d be shocked if we signed more than two and wouldn’t be completely surprised if we didn’t see any of them wearing the unipron next year. I’d love to see both Foote and Liles return, but I’m guessing both guys will be pushing $4 million on their next contract. I absolutely do not want to see Liles move on, but, especially with Cumiskey on the roster, I think his time in Denver is about to come to an end. Too bad.
I’m a fan of both Finger and Sauer, even if their limitations were exposed a bit in the postseason. I doubt that both (either?) will be back next year. If I had to chose, I’d take Finger and then start a letter writing campaign to the team to find a coach who will encourage Finger to use that blistering shot of his on the powerplay.
As for other guys on the free agent market, there’s some good-if-not-great players out there. Wade Redden seems to be the big fish (I’d pass), but there’s other intriguing names on the list - Mattias Norstrom, Brad Stuart (again), Jason Smith (a guy I’ve always liked), Michal Rozsival, Brian Campbell, and Mark Streit to name a few (is there another big name I’m missing?). There’s some intriguing RFAs as well, like Joni Pitkanen and Jay Bouwmeester, but I have a tough time picturing Francois Giguere going the RFA route.
I have to be honest - I don’t have a clue what the Avs are going to do here. I suspect Foote is going to be the prime target, but beyond that I’m really curious to see what Giguere is going to do. With a good foundation already locked up, I don’t know that the Avs will make a Hannan-like splash here this year.
Over the next day or two, I’m going to take a look at the offseason situation for the three positions - who’s under contract, who’s a free agent and who is out there on the free agent market. I’m not going to even try to predict what will happen this summer; even Francois Giguere has said that much of what happens will depend on the decisions of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. But, it’s good to at least know what sort of options are out there.
The goalie position is pretty cut and dry right now. Peter Budaj is the only player under contract, at a bargain price of $800,000 ($700,000 is the cap hit). Jose Theodore is an unrestricted free agent. Tyler Weiman and Michael Wall are both free agents as well. I don’t know the status of Jason Bacashihua, but suspect he may be a free agent too. The latter three, at best, are candidates to be a back up but would more likely be organizational depth if they return.
The question here is whether or not the Avalanche re-sign Theodore. The free agency market is rather slim when it comes to goalies. Theodore is probably the biggest name on the market, which means two things for the Avalanche. One, it should drive up his market value, perhaps pricing him right out of Denver. And two, if he does leave, it means there’s not a lot of other starting-caliber goalies out there. Cristobel Huet is one option in the UFA market, but after that you’re talking about guys with some scattered success like Johan Holmqvist, Alex Auld or Ty Conklin. Denver native John Grahame is an interesting name as well, but really beyond Theodore and Huet we’re probably not talking about guys who would be an upgrade to Budaj. There are likely to be other options on the trade market - Dwayne Roloson, Ray Emery - but I’m not sure that Roloson’s 38-year-old body or Emery’s 8-year-old mentality will be of much help in Denver.
Last summer we were heading into the season fully expecting to have Peter Budaj at the helm with Theodore as a backup, and many of us - myself included - were comfortable with that scenario. If Theodore leaves - a very real possibility - are we still comfortable with Budaj? Is Budaj capable of being a regular starter in the NHL? I’m starting to think that - barring a blockbuster trade - we’re going to find out the answer.
I’m not doing a recap for last night’s game. Every game in the series was pretty much the same - decent play by the Avs for a stretch peppered with back-breaking mistakes. In 3 of the 4 games, the Wings scored two goals in under two minutes and Detroit had a 4-1 lead in every single game. You’re not going to win very many playoff games trying to climb from a 3-goal deficit. Johan Franzen scored as many goals (9) as the entire Avalanche team. Jose Theodore was brilliant in round one and atrocious in round two; even playing behind a shockingly porous defense, an 823 save percentage isn’t going to get it done. And you can talk all you want about the guys who weren’t in the lineup, but the guys who were there took 24 freaking minor penalties in 4 games (as Joel Quenneville shouted to Jeff Finger in game 2: “What the fuck are you doing?”), resulting in 7 powerplay goals. The Avalanche scored 4 pp goals - 5 if you count the McLeod game 3 goal with an extra attacker on the ice - but gave up 2 shorthanded goals. All in all, just an ugly series from a team that, quite frankly, should have been better.
Read more…
For about 18 minutes, it seemed like the seriously depleted Avalanche were going to be able to hang with the Red Wings. And then, right on schedule, the wheels came off the bus. A turnover with Hannan pinching led to a Holmstrom goal on a 2 on 1 and then less than a minute later another turnover led to another 2 on 1 and another goal (this time from 2008 Conn Smythe winner Johan Franzen). 40 seconds after that the Avs were opening the 2nd period with Kurt Sauer in the box and Peter Budaj in net and weren’t far away from going down 4-1. Everything after that - the ridiculous no-look Zetterberg goal and Franzen’s 2nd hat trick of the series - was completely superfluous.
Like the 7-0 meltdown against the Wings in game 7 of 2002, this one has been difficult. It’s one thing to see your team lose the deciding game. Let’s face it, we all knew this would happen. It’s another thing entirely to have to sit through 40 minutes knowing that it’s over.
Obviously, I’m extremely impressed with the Detroit team and the organization - I’m still in awe with the way they remained competitive while transitioning into the salary cap era, especially when compared to the stumbles the Avs made. And seeing guys like Datsyuk (6th round) and Zetterberg (7th round) excel makes the rest of the NHL GMs look like a bunch of Mike Milburys. I’m not sure any of this lessens the sting of losing, though.
Against the Wild, the Avalanche really looked like a team poised to make a deep run. They had all the pieces - goaltending, defense, scoring depth and discipline. They’ve exhibited NONE of those qualities against the Wings. Injuries, of course, were an enormous factor. Would the series have been different if the Avalanche had been healthy? Absolutely. But even the healthy players - guys like Foote, Hejduk, Sauer, Salei and, yes, Sakic - didn’t play very well in the series. In the end, it just wasn’t meant to be.
Is this the final game, Avalanche fans? I’m worried that it might be, and I’m having a tough time coming to grips with it.
I don’t mean the final game of the season. I’m as optimistic as any fan of the team, and I just don’t see them beating this Detroit team four times in a row. Heck, I’m not even sure they can beat them one time in a row, as they are 0-7 against the Wings this year. The Wings winning the series is as close to inevitable as it gets. If it’s going to end, it might as well end tonight, on home ice. No sense drawing this out.
My fear, of course, is that this may be the final game for the one hockey player I idolize - Joe Sakic. I could list all of his career achievements here, but you guys already know the drill. He’s the best player to ever wear an Avalanche jersey (yes, Detroit fans, I know that’s only a 13 year history and no, I don’t give a fuck). He’ll likely be the best player to ever wear an Avalanche jersey for a long, long time.
In this day and age of conditioning, 38 years old is not quite as ancient as it used to be. Nick Lidstrom will likely win the Norris trophy again and he’s just 8 months younger than Super Joe. Other players around Sakic’s age or older are still playing - Brendan Shanahan, Sergei Fedorov, Mathieu Schneider, Mark Recchi, Gary Roberts and, of course, Chris Chelios. Steve Yzerman retired at 41. Mario Lemieux played until he was 40.
But Father Time catches up with everyone eventually, even heroes. Sakic is not the same player he was even just one year ago. He seems to have lost far more than just a step or two, and his dangerous wrist shot is no longer striking fear into the hearts of opposing goalies. It may simply be due to the injury he suffered this year, but that’s immaterial. At that age, once you start losing it, it’s almost impossible to get it back (as I’m reminded every morning as I watch a few more hairs wash down the shower drain).
Even with diminished skills, Sakic clearly has the secondary skills to continue to be a useful player. He showed us (and Minnesota) in round 1 that he can still have an impact on the game, but it won’t be with the consistency he’s had in the past. That’s fine with me. Personally, he’d have a spot on any team I was running as long as he’s willing and able to lace on the skates. Is it fine with Joe, though?
I’m not even going to pretend to tell you I have any idea what Sakic is thinking right now. I could go on about body language, family matters and going out on top…blah blah blah blah. I’ve never met the man and I have enough trouble trying to predict the actions of people I do know. He could play for 5 more years for all I know, or, perhaps, he could retire tomorrow. I will say, though, that Super Joe doesn’t strike me as a “Farewell Tour” type of guy. I don’t expect him to give us a lot of advance notice about his departure. And that’s why if the game isn’t going our way, I’ll be wondering as the final seconds tick of the clock if this is my hero’s final shift in his final game. I sincerely hope that won’t be the case. My favorite team just won’t be the same.
