The Avalanche dropped from 33 to 28 players today, sending Jason Bacashihua, Nathan Smith, Darcy Campbell, Aaron MacKenzie and Matt Hendricks to the AHL. With 23 spots available, that means, barring an IR move, there are at least 5 more cuts to come.
Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft are the only two goalies left - no surprises here.
There’s 8 defensemen left on the roster. I would say 6 are locks - Brett Clark, Adam Foote, John-Michael Liles, Ruslan Salei, Jordan Leopold and Scott Hannan. The two remaining players are Daniel Tjarnqvist and Kyle Cumiskey. One - and possibly both - players should make the team. For what it’s worth, neither player suited up in the first preseason game. Tjarnqvist played 24 minutes and was +2 with an assist in the 2nd game and also got lots of ice time on both the PP and penalty kill, while Cumiskey played 19 minutes. The fact that Tjarnqvist has been used in all situations and must clear waivers before being sent to Lake Erie puts him ahead of Cumiskey in my mind.
The battle at the forward position is quite interesting, with 18 players now battling for 13 or 14 spots. Currently, Wojtek Wolski, Marek Svatos and David Jones are hurt and if one (or more) start the season on IR, it will open more spots for the time being.
Of the 18, there’s a few who, of course, are locks to make the team: Joe Sakic, Paul Stastny, Ryan Smyth, Wolski, Svatos, Milan Hejduk, Darcy Tucker and Ian Laperriere. I’d also add Ben Guite and Tyler Arnason to the list, leaving 8 guys chasing - at most - 4 spots.
The remaining eight:
TJ Hensick, Jones, Brian Willsie, Cody McCormick, Cody McLeod, Per Ledin, Scott Parker and Chris Stewart.
Parker and Willsie are the only two players who would need to clear waivers to be sent to Cleveland, although I don’t think there’s a huge risk that either would be claimed (Willsie, maybe, but not the Sherrif). Hensick and Stewart have both been given top-line minutes this September. By all accounts, Stewart has had a better camp than he did last year and I think this is the year we’ll see him make his regular season debut, but not to start the year. If I was a betting man (and I’m not), I’d pick Hensick, Jones, Willsie and McLeod to start the season. I’m still crossing my fingers for Ledin, though, so stay tuned.
Does Ledin have to clear waivers.. I was under the impression he did.
I was going by the AvalancheDB chart, but just to be sure I had to double check.
according to article 13.4 of the NHL CBA (PDF link), as a 25+ year-old, he’s exempt from waivers for 1 year (from signing).
Ahh good to know.
Hey DD.. know how i change my Avatar?
?
actually DD, I’m pretty sure Willsie (600k/???) and Parker (500k/100k) are both on 2 way contracts, meaning they can go to the LEM without clearing waivers before the start of the season, like Healey last year. Jones, Hensick, Stewart, and the Codys are all 2 way as well.
Per Ledin is the only one of that 8 with a one way contract, meaning he would make his full 600k in the minors. In my mind, this makes him essentially a lock for the big club, even if it’s just in the press box.
Assuming one of the 3 hurt guys isn’t healed by the start of the season, I’d say Hensick, Jones, Ledin, and Parker make the big squad.
wait, im wrong. parker and willsie DO have to clear waivers, but they are on 2 way contracts and will get their salary nerfed if they clear wavers.
yeah. you do make a good point about Ledin - he makes $600k regardless of where he plays, which definitely helps his cause.
Well i thought it was through Gravatar, but that doesn’t have seemed to work. Since you have one i thought you knew.
I assumed you set that up through gravatar. If not, I’m not really sure why it’s showing up - blogger profile, perhaps? I know the gravatars are linked by your email.
also, reading through the CBA, it looks like there’s a clause that players making more than $100,000 (this year - it’s a sliding scale) in the AHL would be eligible for waivers. But I don’t think that means players making that or less (Parker) are exempt. The wording is a tad confusing…
What I want:
Smyth - Stastny - Hejduk
Jones - Sakic - Svatos
Tucker - Hensick - Wolski
Lappy - Guite - Willsie
Foote - Hannan
Leopold - Salei
Clark - Liles
Budaj
Raycroft
Press Box extras:
Ledin
Stewart
Cumiskey
What I think will actually happen:
Smyth - Stastny - Hejduk
Tucker - Sakic - Hensick
Jones - Arnason - Willsie
Lappy - Guite - Ledin
Foote - Clark
Leopold - Salei
Hannan - Liles
Budaj
Raycroft
Press box extras:
McLeod
Parker
Tjarnqvist
Svatos (IR)
Wolski (IR)
#############
I think with the way that Montgomery and Vernace played you have plenty of depth if you need it after Cumiskey. So I wouldn’t be too concerned about letting Tjarnqvist exposed to waivers.
As much as I don’t like it it seems inevitable that Arnason will continue to center the 3rd line and that for some reason the coaching staff thinks Tucker is a 2nd line forward and should be a winger with Sakic. It doesn’t seem as of yet that the coaches want to stack their top defensive pairing with Foote and Hannan. I think that’s a mistake. I wouldn’t spread out the strength of the defense over all three pairings but keep the first pairing as defensively strong as possible to start the season.
I personally like Jones and Svatos with Sakic because they can produce on the rush. Jones can drive the net and make space for Svatos and Sakic to clean up rebounds. Jones gives the line its physical forecheck. Wolski is always an option instead of Jones but I think that puts a lot of the corner work on Sakic’s shoulders and it loses any physical presence. Tucker, Hensick and Wolski seems to be a good mix of skill and some physical presence as well.
Right now, Hensick is almost a required player because of his ability in the skills competition after ties. Everyone, including the coaches are gushing about Jones. So I don’t see him not making it either.
Tough one to call.
Interesting post Dario, and I like your lineup better than the most likely. Putting Tucker with Sakic would be a waste of Super Joe’s potential last year, imo.
Does anyone have the scoop on the Wolski and Svatos injuries? Could they really both start the season on IR?
Ugh, we need to solve our injury problem…
Svatos is going to play Wednesday (and Wolski and Jones both practiced).