I looked at the defensemen and goaltender situation yesterday, and now get down to the main course - forwards. This is the position that has the potential for the most change, and not all of that is due to the will-they-or-won’t-they status of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg.
The Avs currently have 8 forwards under contract for next season, with salary cap numbers in parentheses.
- Ryan Smyth ($6,250,000)
- Milan Hejduk ($3,900,000)
- Tyler Arnason ($1,675,000)
- Ian Laperriere ($1,150,000)
- Paul Stastny ($850,000)
- T.J. Hensick ($850,000)
- David Jones ($550,000)
- Ben Guite ($475,000)
All told, that’s $15,700,000 in salary. However, Stastny will be a restricted free agent next summer, so one would assume that sometime this summer he will sign one of those big, long contracts that have become all the rage in the NHL lately.
There are also several key restricted free agents, most of whom I’d expect back in the ugly uniforms next year (’07-’08 salary in parentheses):
- Marek Svatos ($1,200,000)
- Wojtek Wolski ($860,000)
- Cody McCormick ($475,000)
- Brad Richardson ($600,000)
- Cody McLeod ($490,000)
I assume Richardson is done in Denver (I’ll stay off my soapbox on this one, but I think everyone knows how I feel about this). I think Wolski, Svatos and McLeod are good bets to return next year, although the first two will likely be seeing a nice pay increase.
As for the UFAs:
- Joe Sakic ($6,750,000)
- Peter Forsberg ($5,000,000)
- Andrew Brunette ($1,600,000)
- Jaroslav Hlinka ($600,000)
- Wyatt Smith ($500,000)
- Scott Parker ($475,000)
I think most everyone knows the drill here. If Sakic decides not to hang up the skates, he’ll be back with the Avs. The same has been reported of Forsberg - and, honestly, I’d love to have him back - but I think we all should know by now that NO decision is ever guaranteed with Foppa. A couple of the local writers have speculated that Brunette is all but gone, and that’s a shame. He’s going to be missed both behind the net and in the locker room if he does move on this summer.
As for the other guys on the list, it’s already been rumored that Hlinka would be headed back to Europe, and I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen. I enjoyed watching Hlinka, but he never quite turned the corner and he didn’t cross the pond to watch games from the press box. It’s too bad that didn’t work out for Hlinka or the Avs, but it was a risk worth taking for both parties. I hope the team continues to make moves like that in the future. I’m sure Wyatt Smith is gone and it’s a pretty good bet The Sheriff will be riding off into the sunset as well.
So, how does the free agent market look? In a word: old. A lot of the “big” names - Jagr, Shanahan, Weight, Roberts, Fedorov, Sundin, and on and on - seem on the verge of retirement. Marian Hossa seems poised to be the big fish, but guys like Brendan Morrison, Pavol Demitra, Miro Satan, Markus Naslund, Brian Rolston, Ryan Malone, Radim Vrbata, and the beloved Sean Avery seem to top what appears to be a rather thin list. I have to admit, other than Rolston and Malone, I don’t see many names out there that really get me excited. If there’s one positive that we got out of the Wings series, though, it’s that TJ Hensick and David Jones are looking an awful lot like guys ready to have an impact in the NHL, so perhaps Francois Giguere can focus on depth here rather than impact players.
The cap next year is rumored to be in the $55 million to $58 million range. By my math, the Avalanche have $29.5 million already invested in salaries to 14 players, leaving about $25 million to sign free agents (including RFAs like Svatos and Wolski). The Avalanche also have to extend Stastny this summer, although if I understand the CBA correctly (and there’s a good bet that I don’t) his extension wouldn’t affect his cap number this year. If Foote re-signs and Sakic returns (please) there’s a big chunk of change gone. No matter what, this rather meh free agency crop will force Giguere to be careful with his spending this summer. So, maybe we will see Wyatt Smith in an Avalanche unipron again…
“his extension wouldn’t affect his cap number this year.”
You are correct, sir.
wow, you really think Richie is done here? 40 points in 38 games (14 goals) with the Monsters tells me he’s gotten his game back after his nasty injury in camp. His 1.05 PPG was tops on the Monsters hands down, even better than Hensick at .90. He needs to perform — NOW, as in this year — but I think he’ll get at least the first half of this coming year to make his case.
Bruno will be leaving, I’m almost sure. This team isn’t exactly oozing speed, and it was clear that lack of speed hurt us against Detroit. I expect Svatos to take his place in the top 6, and if he falters, Jones or perhaps even Stewart.
In terms of things I’d like, but don’t really expect, I’d hope the team ditches Arnason in favor of Hensick (or even Richie) centering the 3rd. A kid 3rd line of Richie / Hensick / Jones would really make me happy, I think that line would really tear it up.
Also in that unlikely category, I hope the Avs make a big run at Rolston in UFA too. Sure, he’ll probably be overpaid at 5 millionish a year, but his monster point shot and veteran savvy would be nice to have with probable Bruno and Forsberg exits, followed shortly by Joey.
to me, the fact that Richie didn’t dress against the Wings confirms it. Hensick, Hlinka, WYATT SMITH and a 7th defenseman all seem to be higher on the depth chart than Richardson. I don’t agree with it, but that’s how it seems from here…
It is puzzling. I hope it’s just more bizarre Q overvaluing of Wyatt Smith than an indictment of Richie. Poor kid, still hasn’t gotten a fair shake here.
We all know that Richie was another victim of Q insanity. I heard rumors that he said his wrist was still holding him back early in the year. He tore it up later though. Seeing Wyatt again made me gag, what with Richie and Stewart sitting around. Clearly Q wanted more defense, and a good thing too, because Smith clearly kept the score from moving from 8-2 to 9-2.
I hear that Foppa is saying he is done. Don’t blame him, and coming back was an awesome ride, Peter.
If Rolston were to land in Denver, would he be the heir apparent to the captaincy or does Smyth lock that up if Joe hangs them up in the near future? Do you pull a Crosby and stick it on the chest of a young guy like SoS?
IMO, probably Smyth or Foote, then maybe Stastny when he retires. No reason to burden Stastny at this point with so much other leadership around.
One thing to consider for all of these playbooks is the inevitable “surprise out of camp”. Every year we hear how some kid came out of nowhere but honestly most of these young players project their abilites before camp. Jones and Hensick really aren’t too big of a surprise. So, with that in mind I think it’s important to think about who might break out in camp and have a real shot at making the team or at least being that rotation guy in with injuries or Q’s doghouse syndrome.
Defense:
There’s not a lot of room here with the Avalanche depth at the NHL level. Cumiskey still has lots of room to grow and break in to the lineup. I’ve seen enough of Boychuk to consider him nothing better than a 7th defenseman in this league. During his call up to the club this year his defense was suspect enough that Q only let him see single digits of ice time as a defenseman and then put him on a forward.
The kid to watch out of camp is without a doubt, Nigel Williams. He’s not 6′5″ and over 225 lbs. He’s a mobile, puck-moving defenseman. He left college early to get more playing time and he’s really tore up the OHL and is doing well in the playoffs. It’s hard not to get too excited about what he’s going. However, even though he’s doing what he wants with his first year in the OHL, it is his 20 year old season. Probably the toughest year to judge a player in juniors. Cody McCormick put up big offensive numbers in his 20 year old season. It’s a time where bodies mature and sometimes there’s a boy vs men aspect to 20 year old seasons. But, he’s certainly someone to watch in camp. Of course, Cohen and Shattenkirk are a couple of years away still.
Goalies:
Not much to say here. After Sauer got shelled for the second year in a row in the Frozen Four he will probably be back for his senior year at Michigan. There’s really no one tearing it up. Perhaps with an improved Lake Erie defense we might know more about this crowd but for now it’s kind of a depressing group. IE, if Theo is gone FG needs to find someone because Wall and Weiman looked exposed last year and don’t present themselves as comfortable NHL backups quite yet.
Forwards:
Always room for the next Wyatt Smith to break out at camp people! Not counting Hensick, Jones and what should be Richardson (hopefully he gets a RFA offer based on the Lake Erie coaches wishes alone). The guy to look at in camp is TJ Galiardi. According to Jori’s site, he’s rumored as to have signed his contract with the Avs. He was on total fire during the playoff run and had a really strong year in the CHL. Again, it was his 20 year old season so there’s still a little unknown factor to his game (IE, see Codey Burki). Justin Mercier is the real deal and according to Jori’s site he just might get a pro contract offer from the Avs and forgoe his career at Miami. This is a growing trend (see David Jones) with the new CBA so it’s not very possible. Like Jones, Mercier could have a really strong camp and follow the yearly trend of Stastny/Jones to becoming an Avalanche regular.
So, keep that in mind when all the free agent craziness goes down this year. The Avs may play it pretty quiet and hope to improve the team through their depth and a healthier lineup.
No idea why I wrote he’s not 6′5″, um he is.
I would see Foote getting the captiancy if Joe hangs up the skates.
Just to add to Dario’s comments, Williams and Galiardi would be the more intriguing names to me when it comes to surprise camp rookies. I believe Williams will sign after the Memorial Cup and at worst will be in the AHL next year, though he could still play in the OHL one more year.
Mercier, outside of Mike Carman, is probably my favorite Avs prospect. I think it’s 50/50 as to whether he leaves. Miami wont be as good as last season with Martinez and Zatkoff leaving early. They again, perhaps being “the man,” a possible captaincy and strong challenger for the Hobey Baker will keep him in school. Still if the Avs flash the cash, I think he’ll sign.
At camp last year Nigel Williams did look pretty damn good. He needs to develop some more but if he does, look out.
The Avs appear to have a lot of depth coming up (another reason why Wyatt and the double Cody combo’s bugged me) but lack the blue chipper. We have SoS (please recover fully, Paul) and solid top line talent, but we could really use another player that is elite in some category (big shot, playmaking, hitting, etc.). Cumiskey has that in speed, but the rest of his game needs to catch up (oh man what a pun).
One more thing. When Joe goes, Stastny gets the C. We need to make this kid our franchise player now.
Just to toss my 2 cents in, I was really impressed by Williams at rookie camp as well. Probably needs another year or 2 though.
Yeah Jori, I’m really excited to see those three in camp (assuming Mercier signs). I think there are still some wild cards with Montgomery, Cambell and perhaps even Hellgren will get a plane-ride over on the defense. We should see a lot more new faces on defense with ATOs etc… because I can’t imagine Lake Erie taking back Puritin, Love, O’Neill and Jillision.
Miami has a hockey team? (just in case you guys and gal needed a reminder that I know very little about non-NHL level hockey)
i think it’s Miami of Ohio, DD. I seem to recall them being decent at hockey.
Yes, it’s Miami of Ohio.
I don’t want to see Purinton retained either. If they want an enforcer type for Lake Erie, re-sign Love, at least he manages to avoid suspension for most of the season. Jillson is another who shouldn’t be re-signed. O’Neill is still under contract for two seasons, was pretty bad last year and should be in Johnstown.
Lake Erie definately needs to revamp their defense, clearly the weakness of the club last year.
There is no question that Adam Foote should get the C if Sakic leaves this summer. Foote’s a born leader.
Stastny is not ready. He’s still a kid, and with the veteran leadership still in the Avs’ locker room (at least for now), he shouldn’t get anything more than an A.
Why put extra pressure on his shoulders?
Part of me wants the Avs to rest the C for a season and split the captaincy duties among two or three As (Foote, Lappy, Clark, or Stastny) and then name a new leader in 2009-10. The Pens did this last season before plopping the C on Crosby.
I hate, hate, hate, hate, hate the split captaincy thing. That’s always struck me as a cop out. Foote or Smyth would seem to be excellent choices - Stastny has a long career ahead of him and I don’t think there needs to be any rush to get him into a C. Clark is an interesting choice as well - he was the C for Hershey, yes?
Speaking of hate hate hate, Go Stars. Now back on topic.
To me, one fact speaks volumes about what direction FG needs to take for the future: Smyth, Hannan, Hejduk and Clark are the 4 top earners against next year’s cap. And imo, all of them were disappointments to some degree this past season. So, does going after big name free agents really pay off in the “new NHL?” So far, for the Avs, no.
They really need to invest more in scouting and drafting (btw, speaking of drafting, does the fact that the Avs probably won’t have their first rounder this year, and that they gave up more to rent Adam Foote than the Sharks gave up to rent Brian Campbell, bother anyone else? Wouldn’t Campbell have been more of what they really needed, especially had they also landed Salei? But I digress again, all in parens for some reason). Hopefully Super Joe will give them a good hometown discount, and I definitely want to see them keep Svatos, Wolski and Bruno (if he isn’t too expensive) around. But in terms of going after any other potentially high priced UFAs? So far, it just doesn’t seem to make sense. They started off on the right track by designating Lake Erie as their exclusive AHL affiliate and loading them up with their own people. Now they need to really work on enriching the talent in their system. And getting a new coach.
and PS: Nice to see they are only overspending 1.675M of cap space on Arny. Yuck.
After watching Brian Campbell flop in the playoffs, I’m glad the Avs stayed away. Salei has been twice the player Campbell has after the trade deadline. I don’t mind the Foote deal because I think he definitely brings a presence to this team that they didn’t have in the first half. Sakic’s one of the best role models in the league, but I get the sense Foote is that vocal guy that really sets the tone of play for the young guys. You can bash his age and his salary, but I think the first rounder they gave up is an investment to improve the first rounders and other young kids that need some guidance and haven’t panned out. There’s something to be said for that.
Wait, did I honestly see someone mention the idea of making a 2nd pairing AHL DMan the CAPTAIN of the Colorado Avalanche?
*scrolls up to double check*
Yep, I sure did. Wow.
Biggest waste of salary cap room in the history of the NHL salary cap (he makes the $4.6m in bonus money to Sakic and Blake look like a shrewd investment), a guy who should be playing on the 2nd pairing for the Cleveland Steamers, and someone suggests making the loser the CAPTAIN???
Hey, actually, this could work. We could buy him a small fishing boat, give him a funny hat, call him “captain” and shove him out into Lake Erie and hope he Dmitri Tertyshnys himself. Maybe handcuff him to Idiot, Granato and Cloutier while we’re at it. That’s about the only captaincy I’d want to see Clark given.
I can’t believe it took 20+ comments before somebody threw Arny’s salary under the bus. We must all still be in shock after round 2…
i DID suggest we ditch him in the 2nd comment. I thought we all knew why!
it’s going to be a little challenging to give Arnason a grade this year - I have to say, I was really impressed with him in stretches this year.
no, really.
well then, pass me some of what you were smoking during those stretches.
I was completely unimpressed with him in stretches this season. I like to call those stretches “February” and “March”
Hey now, I don’t think you are being fair to Arny! I remember 5 minutes against Edmonton ….